Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Polls IV: Sukhumbhand Vs. Pongsapat

Updating with a new poll result from NIDA yesterday, which shows Pongsapat now leading incumbent Governor Sukhumbhand. Tulsathit at The Nation has also put out an analysis questioning the Democrat's decision to field Sukhumbhand over someone like the younger former Finance Minister Korn. According to Tulsathit, Sukhumbhand is all Thep Tuak's doing, as he is the one who backed him and rallied support in the selection committee. 
If last week's polls are reliable, the Democrats have approximately a month to rescue their city gubernatorial campaign that seemed doomed even before it really got started. That Sukhumbhand Paribatra is trailing Pheu Thai's Pongsapat Pongcharoen should not have come as a surprise; what's boggling minds is why the opposition camp put most, if not all, its eggs in the Sukhumbhand basket in the first place.
Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen - Puea Thai Party 
M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra - Democrat Party 
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet - Independent
Suharit Siamwalla - Independent
Kosit Sivinitjit - Independent

NIDA (Jan 23-26) 

Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 23.82%
M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra 19.16%
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 4.93% 

Suharit Siamwalla 1.13%
Kosit Sivinitjit 0.20%
Undecided 48.04%

NIDA (Jan 17-19) 
M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra 20.60%
Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 19.13%
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 4.93% 

Suharit Siamwalla 1.13%
Kosit Sivinitjit 0.27%
Undecided 52.80%

NIDA (Dec 25-Jan 4) 

M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra 24.08%
Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 17.52%
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 9.48%
Undecided 40.46%

NIDA (Dec 20-24) 
M.R. Sukhumband Paribatra  31.42%
Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 25.36%
Undecided 28.55%

Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 41.8%
M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra  32.10%
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 14.3%

The survey noted that Pongsapat's poll numbers had risen from 32.1% before he became a candidate, while Sukhumbhand's had also risen from 31.7%. Assuming the result is from "decided voters", as no mention of undecideds 

ABAC (BKK & 16 provinces Dec 10-15)
Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 32.10%
M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra  31.70%
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 9.48%
Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan 12.80%
Korn Chantikwanij 6.90%
Other 2.00%

Bangkok University (Jan 21-23)
Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 23.90%
M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra 23.60%
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 6.50% 
Suharit Siamwalla 1.00%
Kosit Sivinitjit 0.50%
Undecided 42.10%

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