The Mango

Friday, February 15, 2013

Polls VII: Sukhumbhand Vs. Pongsapat

Suan Dusit released poll results today showing Puea Thai gubernatorial candidate Pongsapat Pongcharoen extending his lead over incumbent Democrat candidate Sukhumbhand Paribatra to 9.91%. Suan Dusit poll, as well as others, have become the bane of underperforming candidates lately, who suggest the polls are biased and misleading in favor of the Puea Thai party.

Clearly, for Sukhumbhand to rally back and win (if the polls accurately reflect reality), he will have to convince most of the remaining undecided voters to vote for him, or something would have to go terribly wrong for Pongsapat. Outside of this, he would need to strike some kind of bargain with other candidates to get their voters to vote for him.

There could also be an X factor - In the 2011 general election, Puea Thai scored well in exit polling, showing they would secure 25 seats and the Democrats 8. However, after the ballots were counted, the Democrats took 23 seats and Puea Thai only 10. How did this happen? You can imagine with such a major turn in events from the exit polling to the final results a number of theories emerged to explain this...

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Candidates
Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen - Puea Thai Party
M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra - Democrat Party
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet - Independent
Suharit Siamwalla - Independent
Kosit Sivinitjit - Independent

Suan Dusit Poll (Feb 9-13)

Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 44.04%

M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra 34.13%
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 6.09%

Kosit Sivinitjit 0.65%

Suharit Siamwalla 1.20%

Wila Udom 0.13%

Other 0.29%Undecided 13.47%

Suan Dusit Poll (Jan 26-30)
Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 41.00%
M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra 36.12%
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 6.88%
Kosit Sivinitjit 0.97%
Suharit Siamwalla 0.53%
Undecided 13.93%

Bangkok University (Feb 1-5)

Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 35.20%

M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra 28.30%

Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 7.00%

Suharit Siamwalla 1.70%

No Vote 1.70%
Kosit Sivinitjit 0.80%
Other 0.60%

Undecided 24.70%

Bangkok University (Jan 21-23)

Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 23.90%

M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra 23.60%

Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 6.50%
Suharit Siamwalla 1.30%
No Vote 1.10%

Other 1.00%
Kosit Sivinitjit 0.50%

Undecided 42.10%

ABAC (BKK Jan 28-Feb 2)

Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 43.10%
M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra 33.10%
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 8.70%

Other 15.10%

ABAC (BKK Jan 22-23)

Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 41.8%
M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra 37.60%
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 14.3%

Other 6.30%

ABAC (BKK & 16 provinces Dec 10-15)

Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 32.10%
M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra 31.70%
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 14.5%
Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan 12.80%
Korn Chantikwanij 6.90%
Other 2.00%

NIDA (Jan 23-26)
Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 23.82%
M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra 19.16%
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 4.93%
Suharit Siamwalla 1.13%
Kosit Sivinitjit 0.20%
Undecided 48.04%

NIDA (Jan 17-19)
M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra 20.60%
Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 19.13%
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 4.93%
Suharit Siamwalla 1.13%
Kosit Sivinitjit 0.27%
Undecided 52.80%

NIDA (Dec 25-Jan 4)

M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra 24.08%
Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 17.52%
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 9.48%
Undecided 40.46%

NIDA (Dec 20-24)
M.R. Sukhumband Paribatra 31.42%
Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 25.36%
Undecided 28.55%

Sunday, February 10, 2013

Polls VI: Sukhumbhand Vs. Pongsapat

This week's addition is the Bangkok University poll, which shows Pongsapat extending his lead over Sukhumbhand from the last poll by 12.6%. Suan Dusit also released a poll at the end of January showing Pongsapat ahead, resulting in a minor backlash from certain individuals who accused the school of polling bias in favor of the government. Bangkok Pundit has covered this mini-drama here.

A few observations: (1) no confirming evidence, but wouldn't be shocked if there was bias in local polling - everything tends to get politicized; (2) margin of error? It's not often that this is reported, so factor that into how serious you take poll results; (3) nearly every poll, however, puts Pongsapat in the lead so there's probably something to be said about this. He's likely leading and/or we have a cabal of pollsters who are out to get Sukhumbhand? Lean more towards the former than latter; (4) keep an eye out for Puea Thai's reaction if they are leading in the polls right before the election, but then end up losing on election day. There's quite a few voices out there already suggesting covert plots and schemes to "steal" the election - and from both sides.

Lastly, Sukhubhand provided the media with a little campaign drama last week when he became upset about those questioning his candidacy - The Nation reported,

Enraged by a question from the audience on the party’s choice for this governor race and conflicts behind, he succumbed to profanity. He repetitively used "Koo", a Thai pronoun for "me" which is generally barred in public.

"Asking me whether I would leave the party, it’s a contempt from someome who dares not to speak out. Why asking this question? It’s an insult. I belong to the party, I love the party, I risked my life for the party. Where would I go? If I leave, I would quit the Democrat Party.

"Asking this question is damn contempt. Don’t insult "Koo" again because "Koo" belong to Democrat Party," he said.

Bangkok University (Feb 1-5)

Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 35.20%

M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra 28.30%

Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 7.00%

Suharit Siamwalla 1.70%

No Vote 1.70%
Kosit Sivinitjit 0.80%
Other 0.60%

Undecided 24.70%

Bangkok University (Jan 21-23)

Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 23.90%

M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra 23.60%

Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 6.50%
Suharit Siamwalla 1.30%
No Vote 1.10%

Other 1.00%
Kosit Sivinitjit 0.50%

Undecided 42.10%

ABAC (BKK Jan 28-Feb 2)

Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 43.1%
M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra 33.10%
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 8.7%

ABAC (BKK Jan 22-23)

Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 41.8%
M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra 37.60%
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 14.3%

ABAC (BKK & 16 provinces Dec 10-15)

Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 32.10%
M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra 31.70%
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 14.5%
Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan 12.80%
Korn Chantikwanij 6.90%
Other 2.00%

Monday, February 4, 2013

Polls V: Sukhumbhand Vs. Pongsapat

Two recent polls from ABAC and Suan Dusit added to the list and a correction to the number reported for Sukhumbhand from the Jan 22-23 ABAC poll. In the Suan Dusit poll, Pongsapat holds almost a 5% lead over Sukhumbhand, while in the ABAC poll Pongsapat extended his lead to 10%.

Candidates
Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen - Puea Thai Party
M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra - Democrat Party
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet - Independent
Suharit Siamwalla - Independent
Kosit Sivinitjit - Independent

Suan Dusit Poll (Jan 26-30)
Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 41.00%
M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra 36.12%
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 6.88%
Kosit Sivinitjit 0.97%
Suharit Siamwalla 0.53%
Undecided 13.93%

ABAC (BKK Jan 28-Feb 2)

Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 43.1%
M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra 33.10%
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 8.7%

ABAC (BKK Jan 22-23)

Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 41.8%
M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra 37.60%
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 14.3%

ABAC (BKK & 16 provinces Dec 10-15)

Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 32.10%
M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra 31.70%
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 14.5%
Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan 12.80%
Korn Chantikwanij 6.90%
Other 2.00%

Bangkok University (Jan 21-23)
Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 23.90%
M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra 23.60%
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 6.50%
Suharit Siamwalla 1.00%
Kosit Sivinitjit 0.50%
Undecided 42.10%

Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Polls IV: Sukhumbhand Vs. Pongsapat

Updating with a new poll result from NIDA yesterday, which shows Pongsapat now leading incumbent Governor Sukhumbhand. Tulsathit at The Nation has also put out an analysis questioning the Democrat's decision to field Sukhumbhand over someone like the younger former Finance Minister Korn. According to Tulsathit, Sukhumbhand is all Thep Tuak's doing, as he is the one who backed him and rallied support in the selection committee.

If last week's polls are reliable, the Democrats have approximately a month to rescue their city gubernatorial campaign that seemed doomed even before it really got started. That Sukhumbhand Paribatra is trailing Pheu Thai's Pongsapat Pongcharoen should not have come as a surprise; what's boggling minds is why the opposition camp put most, if not all, its eggs in the Sukhumbhand basket in the first place.

Candidates
Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen - Puea Thai Party
M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra - Democrat Party
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet - Independent
Suharit Siamwalla - Independent
Kosit Sivinitjit - Independent

NIDA (Jan 23-26)
Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 23.82%
M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra 19.16%
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 4.93%
Suharit Siamwalla 1.13%
Kosit Sivinitjit 0.20%
Undecided 48.04%

NIDA (Jan 17-19)
M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra 20.60%
Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 19.13%
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 4.93%
Suharit Siamwalla 1.13%
Kosit Sivinitjit 0.27%
Undecided 52.80%

NIDA (Dec 25-Jan 4)

ABAC (BKK Jan 22-23)

Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 41.8%
M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra 32.10%
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 14.3%

The survey noted that Pongsapat's poll numbers had risen from 32.1% before he became a candidate, while Sukhumbhand's had also risen from 31.7%. Assuming the result is from "decided voters", as no mention of undecideds

ABAC (BKK & 16 provinces Dec 10-15)

Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 32.10%
M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra 31.70%
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 9.48%
Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan 12.80%
Korn Chantikwanij 6.90%
Other 2.00%

Saturday, January 26, 2013

Polls III: Sukhumbhand Vs. Pongsapat

Updating with poll results from NIDA and Bangkok Poll

Candidates
Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen - Puea Thai Party
M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra - Democrat Party
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet - Independent
Suharit Siamwalla - Independent
Kosit Sivinitjit - Independent

Bangkok University (Jan 21-23)
Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 23.90%
M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra 23.60%
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 6.50%
Suharit Siamwalla 1.00%
Kosit Sivinitjit 0.50%
Undecided 42.10%

NIDA (Jan 17-19)
M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra 20.60%
Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 19.13%
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 4.93%
Suharit Siamwalla 1.13%
Kosit Sivinitjit 0.27%
Undecided 52.80%

NIDA (Dec 25-Jan 4)

ABAC (BKK Jan 22-23)

Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 41.8%
M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra 37.60%
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 14.3%

ABAC (BKK & 16 provinces Dec 10-15)

Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 32.10%
M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra 31.70%
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 9.48%
Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan 12.80%
Korn Chantikwanij 6.90%
Other 2.00%

Democrat Party Election Committee (December 12-17)

M.R. Sukhumband Paribatra 35.00%
Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 30.00%

Wednesday, January 23, 2013

Polls II: Sukhumbhand Vs. Pongsapat

Updating from the last post, ABAC has released new poll results showing that Puea Thai challenger Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen now leads incumbent Governor MR Sukhumbhand Paribatra. ABAC asked Bangkok voters the question - if the election were held today, which candidate would they choose?

Of the 1,766 surveyed, 41.8% said they would choose Pongsapat, 32.1% Sukhumbhand and 14.3% Independent candidate Lt. Gen Seripisut Temiyavet. The survey notes that Pongsapat's poll numbers have risen from 32.1% before he became a candidate, while Sukhumbhand's have also risen from 31.7%.

The survey results can be found here. The pollsters also asked several other questions in the survey. One interesting result was that 80.3% said they want to see a lot of change after the election, which could be telling about who the voters end up choosing. Pongsapat for change?

If Pongspat, also nicknamed Judi Event, manages to pull this off then it would be a yet another huge blow to the Democrat party, who were soundly defeated in the July 2011 election. On his nickname, he is called Judi and the Event part refers to his media savvy style, which is on full display here in this short campaign ad clip.

Photo c/o MCOT (If Pongsapat wins, then hopefully he can replace all the old clunker buses like the one he is getting off of in the picture. It would be a huge boost to Bangkok's air quality as well as its image as a modern, progressive city. It is long overdue, as some of those buses look like they were built in the 1960s. Tourists, which are an important driver to the economy, are also quick to cringe and poke fun at these old dinosaurs)

Tuesday, January 22, 2013

Polls I: Sukhumbhand Vs. Pongsapat

The campaign for the next Bangkok governor is now in full swing, with the election just a little more than a month away on March 3. The top two contenders at the moment are incumbent Democrat Party candidate M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra, nickname "Khun Chai Moo", and Puea Thai's Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen. Also in the mix is dark horse candidate Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet, who previously served as a police commissioner (appointed after coup - 2007-8).

Recent poll results from NIDA and the Democrat party give Sukhumbhand a 5-7% lead, while an ABAC poll gives Pongsapat an edge of less than 1%. The NIDA poll has a large number of undecideds at 40.46%.

Puea Thai firebrand and Deputy Prime Minister Chalerm Yubamroong, of course, has his own version of the polls. Chalerm told the press two days ago that an ABAC poll showed Pongsapat leading Sukhumbhand 42% to 26%. In his press statement, Chalerm even went on to say that he thought the lead is even bigger - maybe 60% to 20%.

Upon further investigation, it appears Chalerm's has the right numbers but for a different question. The 42.8% to 26.4% numbers come from the ABAC poll asking voters in BKK and 16 provinces which party they would vote for if the general election were held today (not who they would vote for in the Bangkok gubernatorial election). 42.8% of respondents said they would vote Puea Thai, 26.6% Democrat and 30.7% other party.

The Democrat party has fared well in the past three gubernatorial elections, winning in 2009, 2008 and 2004. In the July 2011 national election, they won 23 seats, while Puea Thai only garnered 10 seats. The Democrats also won the vast majority of city council seats in the 2010 elections. Furthermore, some observers say Bangkok voters may prefer to have different parties running the city and national government in order to balance power.

This doesn't mean the Democrats are destined to win however. Thai Rak Thai party, Puea Thai's earlier predecessor, crushed the Democrats in Bangkok in the 2001 and 2005 national elections. Sukhumbhand's term in office has not been very remarkable either and a number of controversies currently surround him, such as the DSI investigation into the Skytrain contract extension, an uncompleted futsol stadium and a conflict between the State Railway of Thailand and Chatuchak market. He also took flack for his handling of the 2011 flood and his support for the "giant tunnels". Pongsapat, in comparison, does not seem to carry as much baggage - and personality wise he shows more charisma. Bangkok voters may also be looking for a change and a new face to lead them forward.

Peering back into the 2009 election result, Sukhumbhand won with 45.47% of the vote. Puea Thai's Yuranun Pamornmontri finished second with 29.72%, while in third and fourth were Independents MR Nattakorn Devakula and Kaewsan Athibodi with 16.27% and 7.03%, respectively. Today, Nattakorn is a social and political commentator at Voice TV, which is considered Puea Thai leaning since it's owned and managed by Thaksin's family. Kaewsan, on the other hand, is a staunch critic of Thaksin and company. If Nattakorn or Kaewsan had not run, one could argue that the race would have been closer - perhaps 52.5% to 45.9%. It will be interesting to see how everything shakes out come election day.

Chalerm's Poll

Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 42%

M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra 26%

(numbers correspond to ABAC poll asking people in BKK and the provinces about which party they would vote for if the election was held today)

ABAC Poll (BKK & 16 provinces Dec 10-15)

Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 32.10%
M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra 31.70%
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 9.48%
Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan 12.80%
Korn Chantikwanij 6.90%
Other 2.00%

The poll includes people in the provinces so not really the target group we are looking for unless for this question the pollsters excluded those in the provinces from this question (not clear in the article).

It also includes members from Puea Thai, Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan, and Korn from the Democrats. Combining the percentages from those two would give Pongsapat 44.9% and Sukumbhand 38.60%, assuming those supporters would back the party.

NIDA poll (50 BKK districts Dec 25-Jan 4)

M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra 24.08%
Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 17.52%
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 9.48%
Undecided 40.46%

In this poll, the only area of Bangkok Pongsapat had an edge was in the north where he received 21.72% over Sukumbhand's 21.36.

NIDA Poll (50 BKK districts Dec 20-24)
M.R. Sukhumband Paribatra 31.42%
Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 25.36%
Undecided 28.55%

Democrat Party Election Committee (December 12-17)

M.R. Sukhumband Paribatra 35.00%
Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 30.00%

Picture c/o The Nation (Pongsapat left; Sukhumbhand right)

Saturday, December 8, 2012

Corruption Perception Index 2012

Rankings for Southeast Asia from Transparency International 2012 Corruption Perception Index (CPI). Thailand ranks 88 out of 176 countries surveyed and fourth in Southeast Asia behind Singapore, Brunei and Malaysia.

Notes from CPI:

The Corruption Perceptions Index ranks countries and territories based on how corrupt their public sector is perceived to be. A country or territory’s score indicates the perceived level of public sector corruption on a scale of 0 - 100, where 0 means that a country is perceived as highly corrupt and 100 means it is perceived as very clean. A country's rank indicates its position relative to the other countries and territories included in the index. This year's index includes 176 countries and territories.

CI refers to Confidence Interval. The confidence interval reflects some of the uncertainty associated with a country's CPI score. It is calculated by looking at the range of scores given by all the data used to calculate that country's score, such that a wider interval reflects a wider variation in the data for that country.

Bangkok Pundit has blogged CPI results from past years here and notes that results from this year aren't comparable to previous years due to changes in survey methodology.

Looking at the scores from the last decade Thailand does not appear to have made significant progress in reducing the perception of public sector corruption - in fact one could argue that the situation has worsened.

In a recent poll conducted by Bangkok University, 88% of Bangkok residents surveyed said that corruption was acute in Thai society, while 12% said it was not. Of the 88%, 58.6% indicated a lot and 29.4% the most.

Bangkok Post report of the survey does not show the breakdown of the 88% - it says, "About 88% believed corruption in Thailand was at its highest level." On this question and a couple others there is a percentage breakdown for the level of agreement with the question posed.

Asked who is most to blame for corruption, respondents said: national politicians 62.9%, local politicians 57.5%, out-dates laws/loopholes 50.1%, Thais not serious about the problem 48.5% and the bureaucracy 42.1%

Asked if the current government is taking the problem of corruption seriously, 35.8% of respondents said yes, while 64.2% felt it was not.

Asked which government projects have the most corruption, respondents said: rice mortgage scheme 51.8%, flood recovery projects 19.3%, one child one tablet 8.9%, SML village fund 5.8%, first time car buyer program 3.8%.

Asked which Thai politician was the most honest, respondents said: PM Yingluck 35.0%, former PM Chuan Leekpai 32.3%, former PM Abhisit Vejjajiva 14.6%, MP Chuwit Kamolvisit 8.8% and former Deputy PM Purachai Piumsomboon 5.0%

Photo c/o Matichon

Saturday, December 1, 2012

Poll: Yingluck, Gov't & Opp Performance

Suan Dusit "Political Index" poll November 25-30, 2012
(click to enlarge)

* Nov. poll shows data for 2012; data for 2011 via Bangkok Pundit

Performance
- PM Yingluck improves from 5.87 to 6.05
- Gov't improves from 5.69 to 5.9
- Opposition improves from 5.57 to 5.68

Major political events in October & November
- (Nov 25-28) No-confidence debate - PM survives 308-159
- (Nov 24) Pitak Siam anti-gov't rally turns out a bust
- (Oct 28) Pitak Siam rally draws more than expected
- (Oct 29) Cabinet reshuffle