The Chiang Mai by-election for Constituency 3 took place on Saturday, with Puea Thai (PT) trying to hold onto its seat after former MP Channicha Wongsuwat was removed by the courts for false asset declaration. The by-election turned out to be more off a side-show, as most media were focused on the battle between the government and opposition over the amnesty and charter amendment bills.
The favorite, PT candidate Kasem Nimmonrat, lived up to expectations and soundly defeated the Democrat and Puea Pandin candidates. Kasem won with 72,385 votes versus Democrat candidate Kulliyakorn Jiamkittiwattana's 18,975 and Puea Pandin candidate Anucha Rungtranon's 1,124 votes.
Take Away: This race was a blowout, and perhaps unsurprisingly given the strong connections PT has to the province and constituency (Thaksin, Yingluck, Yaowapha). It appears as well that the vast majority of red shirts came out in support of the PT candidate, showing that there aren't severe cracks in the PT-red shirt alliance, at least in Chiang Mai. However, there was one stat that caught my eye: Saturday's vote had 16,065 or 6.04% "no votes", whereas in 2011 there were only 2,931 "no votes" or 2.1%. Would be interesting to know where the big increase came from? @tumbler_p (any insights?) Are these reds?
Voter turnout was lower this time around at 73.65%, versus 86.62% in 2011, leaving PT with 9,065 fewer votes and the Democrats 3,074. It was a by-election so lower turnout is not unexpected. PT's share of the vote rose slightly to 78.2% from 77.3% in 2011, while the Democrat's fell slightly from 20.9% to 20.5% (excluding no votes and spoiled ballots).
Not mentioned in the last post, but possibly noteworthy, is that "Ann", the Democrat candidate, is the wife of Terdsak Jiamkijwattana, also known as "Tong Wihok", a local yellow shirt leader and a community radio host. Terdsak's father Settha was killed in a knife attack in Chiang Mai during a rally by the red shirts in 2008, according to the Bangkok Post.
Overall, a terrible result for the Democrats, especially after they sent their biggest national politicians to Chiang Mai to support the candidate. In fairness, the Democrats didn't really have a chance to begin with, but you have to wonder about their candidate selection. Perhaps a moderate, not directly linked to the yellow shirts, would have served them better in this area. You also have to wonder if former PM Abhisit's support is now more of a liability for a candidate than an asset.
The result is still unofficial - EC gives 7 days for filing of complaints.
**please comment if any inaccuracies in the numbers, thanks.
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Chiang Mai will hold a by-election in Constituency 3 on Saturday June 2 to replace outgoing Puea Thai (PT) MP Chinnicha Wongsawat, who was disqualified by the Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Political Office Holders for falsely declaring assets. Channicha is the daughter of former PM Somchai Wongsuwat and Thaksin's sister Yaowapha Wongsuwat.
As PT won the seat in the general election last July, they are the likely favorite. In fact, in the last election Channicha won in a landslide, defeating the second place Democrat candidate 81,450 to 22,049. Chiang Mai is also the home of former Prime Minister Thaksin as well as his younger sister, current Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra.
Running for the Democrat party will be Kulliyakorn Jiamkittiwattana, aka "Ann". She is 28 years old and works at a community radio station. In the run-up to the poll, many of the party's big wigs have headed to Chiang Mai to lend their support, including former PMs Chuan Leekpai and Abhisit Vejjajiva, among others. Here is a campaign video with her making the rounds with Abhisit (wise strategy?)
Representing the PT party will be Kasem Nimmonrat, a 48 year old local politician, who is reportedly very close to Yaowapha. Yaowapha is not only Thaksin's sister but also a key player within PT party. He has also received the blessing of PM Yingluck and Deputy Prime Minister/Interior Minister Yongyuth Wichaidit and several other ministers. Red shirt leaders close to the PT party like former MP Jatuporn Promphan and Deputy Agriculture Minister Nattawut Saikua have also given support. Kasem has previously served as an advisor to Chiang Mai PAO President Boonlert Buranapakorn.
Anucha Rungtranon, 43, is the third candidate, representing the Puea Pandin party. He is listed as a farmer by the Office of the Chiang Mai Election Commission.
Take Away: There has been much speculation recently about a growing split between PT leadership (and Thaksin) and various red shirt groups over the different paths to "reconciliation" and other issues such as candidate selection, which may be affecting local elections and resulting in losses.
The concern, for PT party at least, is that red groups will either run their own candidates, resulting in a splitting of the vote, or they may just stay at home and not vote. In both cases, other parties would benefit at the expense of PT. It has also been suggested that reds may vote for another party to show displeasure. Bangkok Pundit has addressed this debate well here and here.
On candidate selection, there is a worry that PT's leadership is selecting the wrong candidates. In Chiang Mai, some reds reportedly complained about PT's candidate selection process, feeling it was undemocratic, driven by nepotism (Thaksin>Yaowapa>candidate) and could lead to an election loss like in Pathum Thani. Instead, they called for a primary system like in the US.
Views on this issue, however, were mixed among three different red shirt leaders in Chiang Mai - interviewed here. Though, what they all did agree on was that the reds in Chiang Mai would fully back the PT candidate.
This upcoming by-election may test some of these theories to a degree, as what better way to make a protest statement against Thaksin and PT than by withdrawing or shifting your support away from the party in its own backyard - especially given that the seat was previously held by a Thaksin relative and the contesting candidate is known to be very close to Yaowapha. Stay tuned ....
Note: Thaksin came out today to apologize for his earlier statements about reconciliation, which were deemed "self-centered" by many of his red supporters. Perhaps his apology will ease some of the underlying tension and animosity.
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Chartchai Chiamsripong (above) defeated Wichien Thienpong 129,424 votes to 63,305 (unofficial). Chartchai and Wichien were the only candidates who entered the race.
Chartchai was the incumbent and received strong support from political warhorse, coup instigator, ostrich farm owner and wine connoisseur Maj. Gen. Sanan Kachornprasert. Sanan is a native of Pichit and an adviser to the Chart Thai Pattana party. He also served as Deputy Prime Minister in the Abhisit government. For a while, he championed himself as Mr. Reconciliation, but seems to have given this up after the last election.
Wichien received support from Puea Thai party, gaining the backing of red shirts like Surakit Laohachaiarun (losing PT candidate in 2011 election) and Police Lt. Gen. Adul Boonsert (former Pichit MP and one of the TRT 111). Wichien is a former Pichit Deputy Mayor.
Take Away: Chartchai drubbed Wichien in this contest. Chartchai was the incumbent and had important backing from influential folks like Sanan. In the 2011 general election, Chart Thai Pattana won two of the three seats in the province, the third went to the Democrats. Sanan's son Siriwat won the seat in Constituency 3.
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Winning candidate Mangkorn Yontrakul (above) received 188,629 votes while Rachanee Polsue and Tinkorn Jurimas garnered 169,053 and 156,215 votes, respectively.
Mongkorn was the incumbent PAO President for Roi Et. He is the brother of Surajit Yontrakul, a Puea Thai MP from Maha Sarakham province. He received support from red shirt leader (and recently disqualified PT MP) Jatuporn Promphan; Prapai Huadsri, leader of the Roi Et red shirts; and Nisit Sintuprai, a UDD school rector.
Rachanee is the wife of Ekapab Polsue, a former Thai Rak Thai MP, and one of the banned 111 TRT politicians (ban expires end of May 2012). She ran as a Puea Pandin candidate in a 2009 House by-election and defeated Puea Thai candidate Nirand Namuangrak. In the July 2011 general election, Ratchanee ran as a candidate for Chart Pattana Puea Pandin, finishing second behind Puea Thai in Constituency 3.
Tinkorn Jurimas is the older brother of Anurak Jurimas. Anurak received a five year political ban for his membership in Chart Thai party in 2008. He is a former Social Development and Human Security Minister and Culture Minister.
Mongkorn, Rachanee and Tinkorn all used the Puea Thai logo on their campaign banners (see video here) and are listed here as PT candidates.
Other Candidates: Pitak Tinrot (2011 election finished last in Constituency 6 under the Power Athlete Party), Sapthra Anyaphot, Subphong Phanomket (ran as a Democrat candidate in the 2011 election, finishing third in Constituency 8).
Take Away: In a fairly close race, the incumbent candidate Mongkorn - using the PT party label and receiving strong red shirt support - takes the seat. Puea Thai won all eight seats in the province in the 2011 general election.
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