Sunday, February 10, 2013

Polls VI: Sukhumbhand Vs. Pongsapat

This week's addition is the Bangkok University poll, which shows Pongsapat extending his lead over Sukhumbhand from the last poll by 12.6%. Suan Dusit also released a poll at the end of January showing Pongsapat ahead, resulting in a minor backlash from certain individuals who accused the school of polling bias in favor of the government. Bangkok Pundit has covered this mini-drama here

A few observations: (1) no confirming evidence, but wouldn't be shocked if there was bias in local polling - everything tends to get politicized; (2) margin of error? It's not often that this is reported, so factor that into how serious you take poll results; (3) nearly every poll, however, puts Pongsapat in the lead so there's probably something to be said about this. He's likely leading and/or we have a cabal of pollsters who are out to get Sukhumbhand? Lean more towards the former than latter; (4) keep an eye out for Puea Thai's reaction if they are leading in the polls right before the election, but then end up losing on election day. There's quite a few voices out there already suggesting covert plots and schemes to "steal" the election - and from both sides. 

Lastly, Sukhubhand provided the media with a little campaign drama last week when he became upset about those questioning his candidacy - The Nation reported
Enraged by a question from the audience on the party’s choice for this governor race and conflicts behind, he succumbed to profanity. He repetitively used "Koo", a Thai pronoun for "me" which is generally barred in public. 
"Asking me whether I would leave the party, it’s a contempt from someome who dares not to speak out. Why asking this question? It’s an insult. I belong to the party, I love the party, I risked my life for the party. Where would I go? If I leave, I would quit the Democrat Party.
"Asking this question is damn contempt. Don’t insult "Koo" again because "Koo" belong to Democrat Party," he said.

Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen - Puea Thai Party 
M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra - Democrat Party 
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet - Independent
Suharit Siamwalla - Independent
Kosit Sivinitjit - Independent

Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 35.20%
M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra 28.30%
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 7.00% 
Suharit Siamwalla 1.70%
No Vote 1.70%
Kosit Sivinitjit 0.80%
Other 0.60%
Undecided 24.70%

Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 23.90%
M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra 23.60%
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 6.50% 
Suharit Siamwalla 1.30%
No Vote 1.10%
Other 1.00%
Kosit Sivinitjit 0.50%
Undecided 42.10%

Suan Dusit Poll (Jan 26-30) 
Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 41.00%
M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra 36.12%
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 6.88% 

Kosit Sivinitjit 0.97%
Suharit Siamwalla 0.53%
Undecided 13.93%

Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 43.1%
M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra  33.10%

Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 8.7% 

Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 41.8%
M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra  37.60%
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 14.3%

ABAC (BKK & 16 provinces Dec 10-15)
Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 32.10%
M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra  31.70%
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 14.5%
Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan 12.80%
Korn Chantikwanij 6.90%
Other 2.00%

NIDA (Jan 23-26) 

Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 23.82%
M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra 19.16%
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 4.93% 

Suharit Siamwalla 1.13%
Kosit Sivinitjit 0.20%
Undecided 48.04%

NIDA (Jan 17-19) 

M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra 20.60%
Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 19.13%
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 4.93% 

Suharit Siamwalla 1.13%
Kosit Sivinitjit 0.27%
Undecided 52.80%

NIDA (Dec 25-Jan 4) 

M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra 24.08%
Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 17.52%
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 9.48%
Undecided 40.46%

NIDA (Dec 20-24) 
M.R. Sukhumband Paribatra  31.42%
Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 25.36%
Undecided 28.55%

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