Friday, February 15, 2013

Polls VII: Sukhumbhand Vs. Pongsapat

Suan Dusit released poll results today showing Puea Thai gubernatorial candidate Pongsapat Pongcharoen extending his lead over incumbent Democrat candidate Sukhumbhand Paribatra to 9.91%. Suan Dusit poll, as well as others, have become the bane of underperforming candidates lately, who suggest the polls are biased and misleading in favor of the Puea Thai party. 

Clearly, for Sukhumbhand to rally back and win (if the polls accurately reflect reality), he will have to convince most of the remaining undecided voters to vote for him, or something would have to go terribly wrong for Pongsapat. Outside of this, he would need to strike some kind of bargain with other candidates to get their voters to vote for him. 

There could also be an X factor - In the 2011 general election, Puea Thai scored well in exit polling, showing they would secure 25 seats and the Democrats 8. However, after the ballots were counted, the Democrats took 23 seats and Puea Thai only 10. How did this happen? You can imagine with such a major turn in events from the exit polling to the final results a number of theories emerged to explain this...


Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen - Puea Thai Party 
M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra - Democrat Party 
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet - Independent
Suharit Siamwalla - Independent
Kosit Sivinitjit - Independent

Suan Dusit Poll (Feb 9-13) 
Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 44.04%
M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra 34.13%
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 6.09% 
Kosit Sivinitjit 0.65%
Suharit Siamwalla 1.20%
Wila Udom 0.13%
Other 0.29%Undecided 13.47%

Suan Dusit Poll (Jan 26-30) 
Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 41.00%
M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra 36.12%
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 6.88% 

Kosit Sivinitjit 0.97%
Suharit Siamwalla 0.53%
Undecided 13.93%

Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 35.20%
M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra 28.30%
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 7.00% 
Suharit Siamwalla 1.70%
No Vote 1.70%
Kosit Sivinitjit 0.80%
Other 0.60%
Undecided 24.70%

Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 23.90%
M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra 23.60%
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 6.50% 
Suharit Siamwalla 1.30%
No Vote 1.10%
Other 1.00%
Kosit Sivinitjit 0.50%
Undecided 42.10%

Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 43.10%
M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra  33.10%

Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 8.70% 
Other 15.10%

Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 41.8%
M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra  37.60%
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 14.3%
Other 6.30%

ABAC (BKK & 16 provinces Dec 10-15)
Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 32.10%
M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra  31.70%
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 14.5%
Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan 12.80%
Korn Chantikwanij 6.90%
Other 2.00%

NIDA (Jan 23-26) 

Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 23.82%
M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra 19.16%
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 4.93% 

Suharit Siamwalla 1.13%
Kosit Sivinitjit 0.20%
Undecided 48.04%

NIDA (Jan 17-19) 
M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra 20.60%
Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 19.13%
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 4.93% 

Suharit Siamwalla 1.13%
Kosit Sivinitjit 0.27%
Undecided 52.80%

NIDA (Dec 25-Jan 4) 

M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra 24.08%
Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 17.52%
Lt. Gen. Seripisut Temiyavet 9.48%
Undecided 40.46%

NIDA (Dec 20-24) 
M.R. Sukhumband Paribatra  31.42%
Pol. Gen. Pongsapat Pongcharoen 25.36%
Undecided 28.55%

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